Essay
In praise of small bets
Why I'd rather ship five small things than plan one big one — and the kinds of problems where that breaks down.
A pattern I keep coming back to: when the path is unclear, make the bet small enough to actually take.
The cost of certainty
Big decisions feel safer when you front-load the thinking. Write the doc, run the review, get the sign-off. But the thinking is only as good as your model of the problem — and most of the time, you don't have one yet.
You build the model by shipping.
What "small" means
A small bet is one where, if you're wrong, you find out in a week instead of a quarter. The shape of it usually looks like:
- One change at a time. If two things move, you can't tell which one moved the needle.
- Reversible. You can undo it without an apology email.
- Cheap to instrument. You'll know within days if it worked.
When it breaks down
This whole approach falls apart for problems where the answer is only visible at scale — pricing, brand, hiring. There you have to commit, watch carefully, and accept a slow signal.
Most of the time, though, you're not in that situation. You just feel like you are because the meeting is on Thursday.
